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NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds and Analysis

2021 Kansas City Chiefs CashBet Betting Odds

Last year the Bills were not yet ready to upend the Chiefs as a Super Bowl best bet.  But this year looks potentially different.  Kansas City remains the one-man team they have usually been in the Patrick Mahomes era.  And their defense has gone back to being defenseless.  At the beginning of the season, the Bills were upset by Pittsburgh.  That loss seemed to have shocked them straight.  Buffalo is on the cusp of their best era since the Marv Levy and Jim Kelly days.  But a win over Kansas City is a necessity for championship credibility.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Information

Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV Coverage: NBC

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds

Team SP/RL TOTAL ML
Bills +2½ ( -105 ) 56½ ( -110 ) +125
Chiefs -2½ ( -115 ) 56½ ( -110 ) -145
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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs CashBet Wagering Analysis

Squares can’t get Mahomes and Arrowhead out of their minds when looking at the Chiefs.  By contrast, Wise Guys see Kansas City’s best Sportsbook online value decline that began in 2020.  Specifically, sharps are tired of the Chiefs’ lack of complementary football.

Buffalo Pays the Bills with Strong Start

Last week, Buffalo stampeded Houston 40-0 as 19-point home chalk.  Also, the game went under the Betting on Super Bowl total of 47.5.  Buffalo has a record of 3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the spread, and 1-3 over/under.  Overall, the Bills rank 6th for total offense and 3rd for scoring offense.  Defensively, Buffalo ranks 1st overall and 1st for points allowed.

The Bills limited Houston to 109 yards of offense and six first downs.  To show, they posted their second shutout in three weeks. Buffalo has two shutouts in a season for the first time since 1990.  Josh Allen finished 20 of 29 for 248 yards with two touchdowns.  Also, Tyler Bass hit all four field-goal attempts – three from inside 30 yards.

Chiefs Rebound at Eagles but Can They Sustain It?

Last Sunday, Kansas City scored a 42-30 win against Philadelphia as 7.5-point away favorites.  Also, the game went over the Super Bowl betting odds total of 53.5.  Now, the Chiefs have a record of 2-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread, and 3-1 over/under.  KC ranks 2nd for total offense and 2nd for scoring offense.  Defensively the Chiefs rank 31st overall and 31st for points allowed.

Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes, including three to Tyreek Hill.  Hill had 11 catches for 186 yards.  Specifically, it was a satisfying win for coach Andy Reid against his old team.   Reid returned to Philadelphia and earned his 100th career win with the Chiefs.  Thus, he became the first coach in NFL history to win 100 games with two teams.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Against the Spread

On the road, Buffalo is 68% against the spread.  While as an underdog, the Bills are 65% vs. the odds.  In conference action, Buffalo is 52% against the spread.  As an away team, Buffalo is 77% under the total.  Overall, as an underdog, the Bills are 54% under the total.  And in conference games, Buffalo is 56% under the Super Bowl betting total.

At home, Kansas City is 47% against the spread.  While as a favorite, the Chiefs are 51% vs. the odds.  In conference action, Kansas City is 56% against the spread.  As a home team, Kansas City is 59% over the total.  Overall, as a favorite, the Chiefs are 50% over/under the total.  And in conference games, Kansas City is 51% over the total.

Buffalo is 1-5 against the spread vs. Kansas City.  The Bills and Chiefs are 2-4 over/under the total.  Specifically, at Kansas City, Buffalo is 1-2 vs. the odds against the Chiefs.  Further, these two teams are 3-1 over/under the total at KC.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs CashBet Free Pick  

In this situation, Buffalo brings considerable NFL gambling value.  Further, they bring a superior defense.

Bills at Chiefs CashBet Best Bet: 

Buffalo Bills

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