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NFL Week 11 Odds: Patriots vs. Texans, Trends, Betting Lines and Analysis

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans NFL odds and picks

Never count Bill Belichick out.  As a matter of fact, the Hoodie is at his best when he’s written off.  Recall many times in the Tom Brady era where the Patriots were proclaimed as over the Pro Football betting hill.  Instead, they would usually rally to win championships.  Brady is gone but Belichick’s culture prevails.  Still, the Patriots face long odds for a 2020 AFC playoff bid.  New England is off the mat with two consecutive wins.  Sunday, they face a Houston Texans team playing out the string.  Interim coach Romeo Crennel is presiding over a train wreck.

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Betting Information

Date: Sunday, November 22, 2020
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
TV Coverage: CBS

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds

Team SP/RL TOTAL ML
Patriots -1½ (-110) 49 (-107) -126
Texans +1½ (-110) 49 (-113) +106
Place Bets

New England Patriots at Houston Texans CashBet Wagering Analysis

In this situation, the Texans make for a strong contrarian sportsbook pick.  Cause by the masses flocking to the Patriots.

The Patriots Find Their Way

Last Sunday Night the Patriots got their second win in a row, 23-17 over the Ravens.  New England were 7-point home dogs.  Under the total of 44 saw the payout window too.  Now the Pats are 4-5 both straight up and against the spread with 4-5 under the total.  New England ranks 19th for total offense and 27th for scoring. Defensively they’re 13th in the NFL and 11th for points allowed.  So too does New England rank sixth for takeaways.

Running back Damien Harris was the hero in the Patriots win over the Ravens.  Harris ran for 121 yards on 22 carries.  While the win was not an artistic triumph the Patriots will gladly take it.  They remain Betting on Super Bowl longshot contenders

Houston, We Have Several Problems

The Texans are coming off a 10-7 loss at the Browns as 4.5-point road dogs.  And then the game went under the total of 46.5.  Houston is 2-7 straight up and against the spread with 5-4 over the total.  The Texans rank 20th for total offense and 25th for scoring.  Overall, defensively Houston is 28th in the NFL and 25th for points allowed.  The Texans are an abysmal 31st for takeaways.  Certainly not a Super Bowl Best look.

Namely, Deshaun Watson has carried what little success Houston has had.  Watson has a 107.0 rating with 18 touchdown passes and five interceptions.  Watson is averaging 8.4 yards per pass and has thrown for 2539 yards.  The Texans aren’t giving him enough help.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans Against the Spread

In sum, New England is 23-20-1 against the spread.  On the road, they’re 10-11 on the board.  And in AFC games the Patriots have gone 16-16-1 vs. the line.  New England is 18-26 under the total in all games.  On the road, the Patriots are 10-11 to the under.  While in AFC matchups New England is 15-18 under the total.

To summarize the Texans have covered the spread in just 16 of their last 43 matchups.  Houston is 8-14 against the line in home games. Against AFC opponents the Texans are 14-18-1 on the board.  Accordingly, Houston has gone under the total in 23 of their last 43 games.  At home, the Texans are 8-14 to the under.  And in AFC matchups the Texans are 14-19 under the total.  Indeed, those are not strong betting on Super Bowl indicators.

Consider New England has covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against the Texans.  Three of the last four meetings between these teams have gone over the total.  By contrast, Houston has covered two of their last three home games against the Patriots.  Four of the last five games between the Patriots and Texans at Houston have gone over the total.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans CashBet Free Pick  

Houston is an NFL gambling choice nobody wants.  Which gives them enhanced value.  As mentioned earlier the Texans have paid at home vs. New England.  Betting Houston is siding with the house.

Patriots at Texans at CashBet Best Bet: 

Houston Texans

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