At the onset of March Madness are changes. The pandemic has altered the traditional days that games take place. Also, many name-brand traditional powers will be out or not serious contenders. That being said, there are March Madness betting truths that stand the test of time. Regardless of sport or circumstances, wagering value is of paramount importance. Value is best ascertained by combining high probability and low price. Public opinion is not a reliable place to find it. Contrarily, opposing “conventional wisdom” is often a path to profits. Let’s examine some factors to consider for the 2021 Big Dance!
2021 March Madness Futures Odds – Keys to Follow
When: March 18 through April 5, 2021
Tennessee Demonstrate Dramatic Value Changes
At the beginning of the season, Tennessee was the hottest brand going with the sportsbook odds. UT got the money in 10 of their first 11 games. The Volunteers climbed to 6th in the national rankings. And then the roof caved in. As Tennessee drew more attention, opponents and gamblers gave them more significant focus. This attention caused the Volunteers to lose board value. UT paid in only four of their last 12 regular-season games.
Now, gamblers are tired of the Vols. They feel a sense of being burned by Tennessee. It follows that the Volunteers could revert back to money-making. Tennessee sets up beautifully as one of the best contrarian 2021 March Madness betting picks. And with one of the nation’s top defenses, they may frequent the payout window.
Rock Chalk Jayhawk?
Counter to Tennessee was the path taken by the Kansas Jayhawks. KU is a traditional name-brand bet on NCAA basketball entity. This status often makes Kansas an overlay on the board. Cause by casual and square money flooding in for their games. In like manner to Tennessee, the Jayhawks started strong with ten payouts in 12 games. Such success had casual gamblers stampeding the betting window. For a public team like Kansas, a winning streak is going to draw everyday cash.
Kansas went on to drop seven of their next ten games against the spread. This stretch caused gamblers to flee like rats off a sinking ship. Subsequently, KU lost only one of their last eight to the spread. Now, gamblers believe that the Jayhawks are a 2021 March Madness Betting favorite. All of which means gamblers should be careful pro and con on Kansas.
Wildcat Strike by Villanova
Fashion that Villanova has everything that gamblers love. Head coach Jay Wright is charismatic and stylish. And then the Wildcats have two national titles since 2016. Nova is consistently ranked at or near the top ten. Villanova was good but not great this season. Consider the Wildcats ranked as high as third in the nation this year.
Villanova enters March Madness ranked tenth in the country. Despite playing in a relatively weaker conference, the Wildcats failed to dominate. Nova will limp into March Madness with only three payouts in their last nine games. Indeed, the Wildcats are good enough to make a Final Four run. But the essential task for gamblers is to get full value. Villanova is too public to assume you’ll get a fair price with at any time.
The Myth of Cinderella
One of the charms of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is enormous upsets. Every year there is a surprise team that emerges. At least for a couple of rounds. However, the further such “Cinderella” teams go, the less likely they are to win. Of course, everyone points to 2018 Loyola Chicago as the ultimate Final Four Cinderella team. And it was a great story. But that was the exception to the rule.
As a matter of fact, Loyola Chicago was an outlier. The later rounds of March Madness are more often than not dominated by blue bloods. Further, when there are surprises, such teams still come from the power leagues. Accordingly, don’t let your heart overrule your head.
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